Gray will make $7.5 million during the upcoming season. Yankees, Reds are finalizing the Sonny Gray trade. Approx 150 prospects across MiLB have the same surplus value attached to them, $28 Million. But he’s going to have to remain healthy and on the mound. There’s no way $28 Million would be the mean or even close to it. I like him as a prospect, but it was hard to see how he would’ve broke through. He made his debut in 2013, but only pitched 64.0 innings in the Majors – he joined the team mid-season. 2.

There’s a huge probability, probably in the neighborhood of 80%, that Long will never a starting MLB 2B anywhere. The Reds, Williams said, were only interested if they could sign Gray to a multi-year deal. Kind of reminds me of Castillo in a way. Instead, by early August of last season, a struggling Gray had been demoted to the bullpen. He’s 22, so this is probably all the velo there will be, but it sinks, he’s a ++ athlete with + breaking ball command, his sinker and change have complimentary movement, the arm slot is weird. From a value standpoint, the Cincinnati Reds sent out about $35.5M in surplus value to acquire Sonny Gray and Reiver Sanmartin. If India, Greene and Santillan are still 50 FV prospects when they hit the big leagues then you could probably value them all equally when it comes to surplus value, after taking into account the discount given to pitchers. Doug, I appreciate the analysis. AJ Preller did a whole lot of something in San Diego about 3-4 years ago, how did that go? But if he’s taking the mound every five days for the majority of his contract, the odds seem good that this deal is going to look fine for the Reds. How much is Gray’s 2018 innings negatively influecing his valuation by whichever system is being used?

That said, though, doesn’t his surplus value start diminishing at some point – namely, the longer he’s not in MLB, the lesser it is? Guessing they probably use projected WAR and assign a value to WAR. After agreeing to the framework of a trade with the Yankees, the Reds were granted an exclusive 72-hour negotiating window to talk to Gray about a … One other point.

Right-handed hitters have had quite a bit more success against him. Otherwise why different treatment than Wood who has had a better career (higher career WAR in 100 fewer IP). A link has been sent to your friend's email address. "We didn’t want to be in a position where all three starters would be becoming free agents next year," Williams said. While the game is certainly changing and you don’t see as many 200+ inning starters anymore, the Reds are likely hoping for at least 170+ out of Sonny Gray. The bottom 57 were considered to be 50 FV players on today’s 20-80 scale. Cincinnati had already added Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, and Matt Kemp this winter.

From 2019-2022 he is owed $38M. It’s a long way from A-ball to the Major Leagues. The Reds added 7 MLB quality players to their roster in exchange for 4 MiLB prospects and Homer Bailey’s contract. Taking that hogwash projection for Shed Long and then comparing it to actual dollars in Sonny Gray’s contract is useless, because again, the base from which Shed Long was calculated is WAY OFF first and foremost and doesn’t seem to consider risk of flaming out. Players get sold but never for that kind of money. You can see at the top of the 50 tier, Hunter Greene (#46) is valued at $31 M but the last 50 grade player (#131) is valued at $9 M. So I don’t think Doug is using this information correctly or within the context the Fangraphs suggested, where the numbers should be weighted according to top 131 ranking. Gray missed time in 2016 and 2017.

Let friends in your social network know what you are reading about. There are also escalators in the contract, but what those are is current unknown.

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